University of Southampton experts invent asteroid prediction software that could save thousands of lives

The potential impact of asteroids colliding with the Earth was dramatically imagined in the blockbuster Armageddon.

And new software created by University of Southampton experts could help to prevent the disaster scenario imagined in Hollywood becoming a reality.

While it predicts that there is a one in 10,000 chance an asteroid could hit off the coast of Norfolk over the next 85 years, it is hoped the new software could provide advance warnings to evacuate areas at risk and even lead to missions to intercept comets hurtling towards the Earth.

Asteroids are rocky objects that are smaller than planets that can orbit planets, and scientists have counted millions within the Solar System.

Clemens Rumpf, a PhD student at Southampton, developed the Armor software to predict the “corridors” which could be at risk from known asteroids, with about 500 asteroids predicted to have a chance of hitting the Earth.

While there is a chance that an asteroid could lead to the end of life on Earth, it is much more likely to leave severe damage to the planet that could kill hundreds of thousands of people.

Mr Rumpf hopes Armor could save thousands of lives by allowing authorities across the Globe to better predict the effects of an impact.

His work shows some areas which are at risk of asteroid collision which could include parts of Europe, including Germany, France and Spain, south Australia and some of the southern states of the United States of America.

It also predicts that parts of the UK could be affected by a huge tsunami that an asteroid could cause.

Asteroids have collided with the Earth in the distant past, but smaller objects, such as meteorites, have entered the Earth’s atmosphere in recent years.

A meteor exploded in the sky over Chelyabinsk, Russia, in 2013, leading to 1,500 people requiring treatment for injuries.

Mr Rumpf said: “The current knowledge of the asteroid impact probability distribution changes over time because new observations improve our knowledge.

“But information, such as shown in the last figure, can help disaster planning because it is our current best guess of where an asteroid impact might occur.

“Usually, impact probabilities are low, similar to winning the jackpot in the lottery. This is the daily situation that we live in and not very worrisome.

“However, some asteroids stand out and in 2004 the asteroid Apophis had a 3 per cent probability to impact in the year 2029. In such a scenario, it is important to know where the impact can occur and what the consequences might be.

“Our long-term goal is to support asteroid deflection mission design by including the knowledge of where the asteroid could impact and what damage it could cause into the deflection mission design process.

“Asteroids are part of our natural environment and smaller specimens collide with the Earth on a regular basis.

“Typically, a harmless shooting star is the result but a large asteroid impact can cause damage on global scale.”